The fact that the older population is expanding worldwide no longer comes as a surprise to most people working in the aging services field. While estimates vary, researchers generally agree that the 65+ population will explode over the next several decades.
The U.S. Administration on Aging estimates that there will be 55 million older Americans by the year 2020. That same year, 6.6 million Americans will be over age 85 and 241,000 will be centenarians.
Life expectancy
Studies released in the second half of 2009 add some clarity to these expectations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced in August 2009, for example, that U.S. life expectancy reached nearly 78 years in 2007, the highest it has ever been.
The CDC set the new life expectancy for males at 75.3 years while women can expect to live until they reach 80.4.
For the first time, life expectancy for black males reached 70 years. These life-expectancy figures could rise substantially by 2050, when scientific advances could help the average American woman live to 93.3 while men could routinely reach the age of 85.9.
The older population’s growth will be fueled, in large measure, by the aging of baby boomers. These individuals, born between 1946 and 1964, are set to retire in record numbers over the next two decades and will soon make up the largest group of consumers of long-term services and supports.
As of July 1, 2008, there were 78 million baby boomers, making up almost 26% of the U.S. population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Who are the baby boomers?
In 2006, most boomers were white (82.2 %), married (65.6%) and born in the U.S. (85.7). Almost 30% were high school graduates while 28.8% had a bachelor’s degree or higher. Three quarters (74.1%) were employed (74.1%) and owned their own home (75%). About 16% had a disability.
Ten percent were veterans. Less than 10% (8.9%) were living in poverty. These statistics may change over the next decades, as the older population becomes more diverse. Researchers estimate, for example, that 1 in every 5 people aged 50 to 69 in the United States will be of Hispanic origin in 2030 and the number of elderly immigrants will quadruple by 2050.
Where will the baby boomers live?
In a significant shift, aging baby boomers are expected to migrate toward more isolated settings that feature natural and urban amenities and lower housing costs. If these forecasts prove true, the
non-metro population age 55-75 will increase by 30% between now and 2020. Census Bureau statistics seem to confirm this pattern.
In 2006, baby boomers already make up a third of the population of such rural states as Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire and Montana.